Israel–Hamas war
The skies over Gaza lit up with the fiery streaks of outgoing rockets and inbound Israeli airstrikes yet again on Sunday, as diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire between the bitter enemies showed little sign of progress. As the death toll continues to mount amid the escalating cross-border violence, global mediators are scrambling to bring the ruling Palestinian militant group Hamas and the Israeli government to the negotiating table before the situation spirals entirely out of control.
The trigger for the latest flare-up, which has seen hundreds of missiles fired from Gaza matched by devastating Israeli aerial bombardment, stems from months of rising tensions in the occupied West Bank. An escalating campaign of deadly Israeli raids and Palestinian militant attacks had already stoked the long-simmering conflict before violence erupted at the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem, a tinderbox site sacred to both Muslims and Jews.
As the holy month of Ramadan began in late March, clashes broke out between Palestinian worshippers and Israeli police within the mosque compound, foreshadowing the explosion of hostilities that was to come. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad militant group fired the opening salvo on May 9th with a barrage of rockets from Gaza, prompting Israel to unleash a blistering series of retaliatory airstrikes on the densely populated coastal strip.
In the ensuing 10 days, over 3,100 rockets have been indiscriminately fired toward Israeli cities and towns according to Israeli estimates, with Palestinian militants continuing their bombardment despite the Israeli military’s overwhelming aerial superiority. Israel has pounded Gaza with hundreds of airstrikes, pulverizing buildings and key infrastructure across the impoverished enclave.
Mounting Casualties as Violence Intensifies
With the violence showing no signs of abating, the mounting casualties have prompted fears of a full-blown war between Israel and Hamas reminiscent of previous devastating conflicts in 2008, 2012 and 2014. According to Gaza’s health ministry, at least 181 Palestinians have been killed so far, including 52 children. Over 1,200 have been wounded in the unrelenting Israeli bombardment that has seen entire residential buildings reduced to rubble.
In Israel, the rocket attacks from Gaza have claimed 10 lives, including a 5-year-old boy and a teenage girl. Over 560 Israelis have been injured as the indiscriminate barrages from Gaza have forced residents in towns and cities across the country’s south and center to shuttle back and forth between shelters and safe rooms.
Amid the rising death toll and worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza, global pressure has intensified on all sides to seek a ceasefire. Mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and the United Nations have engaged in shuttle diplomacy, conferring with representatives from both Israel and Hamas, to try and forge a path toward halting the relentless cycle of violence.
Mediators Lobby for Ceasefire as Rockets and Airstrikes Continue
On Sunday, the UN Security Council held another emergency meeting, calling for a cessation of hostilities and the protection of civilians on both sides. But such demands have so far rung hollow, with both Israel and Hamas appearing determined to continue their military campaigns at this stage.
The Israeli cabinet has given approval for the military to use whatever force is necessary against Palestinian militants, even as their strikes have wrought devastation across the densely-populated Gaza Strip. At the same time, Hamas has remained steadfast in its defiance, continuing to shower Israeli cities and towns with rocket barrages that have kept the country’s traumatized population on constant edge.
In addition to Egypt and Qatar’s outreach, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Hady Amr has been deployed to the region to bolster ceasefire efforts. Amr has held talks with both Israeli and Palestinian authorities, including with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah, whose increasingly unpopular Palestinian Authority exerts little sway over Hamas-controlled Gaza.
At the same time, UN Middle East Peace Envoy Tor Wennesland is shuttling between all sides in a desperate bid to pull the two warring factions away from the brink. He has issued urgent appeals for a ceasefire, warning that the spiraling violence could ignite an uncontrollable crisis.
“The United Nations is actively engaged with all concerned in an immense effort to urgently de-escalate the crisis on the ground and achieve a ceasefire,” Wennesland stated. “The UN is fully focused on avoiding another devastating conflict in which civilians in Gaza and Israel will suffer tremendously.”
Regional Dynamics and Political Pressures
For international brokers, driving a wedge between the unyielding positions of Israel and Hamas has proven to be an intractable challenge so far. While the Israeli government continues to insist its aerial campaign will press on until Hamas is substantially degraded, the militant group has held fast to its demand for an end to Israeli aggression against Jerusalem and the West Bank as its condition for ceasefire.
Regional factors have further muddied the diplomatic waters, with traditional Palestinian allies in the Arab world issuing more muted responses than in past Israeli-Palestinian flare-ups. While condemning the Israeli strikes in Gaza as excessive, most Arab nations have not wholeheartedly thrown their weight behind Hamas in the same way Gulf states like Qatar have.
There is simmering wariness over the prospect of isolating the new Israeli government, which includes an Arab political party for the first time. Hamas’s fierce rival, the Palestinian Authority, has been relegated to the sidelines and shown little influence over Hamas as it has fought for control of the streets of Gaza. This has left mediators like Amr and Wennesland to try and soothe tempers between two implacable foes.
The political calculus over the festering conflict adds another layer of complexity for negotiators. For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, there is intense pressure from hardline members of his cabinet to intensify the bombardment of Gaza to achieve a decisive military victory over Hamas. Any perceived compromise could spark a political backlash and undermine his fragile coalition government.
Hamas’s leadership also faces scrutiny within the organization and the broader Palestinian nationalist movement for any sign of capitulation to Israeli demands. Accepting a ceasefire seen as conceding to Israeli terms risks provoking an internal challenge to Hamas’s authority in Gaza from more militant offshoots.
Exacerbating the dangerous situation further are the wildcard threats of mob violence in Israel itself, where simmering tensions between Jewish and Arab citizens have periodically boiled over into clashes in several ethnically-mixed cities. While Israel has tried to restore calm on the domestic front, fractures within Israel’s diverse social fabric have been laid bare by the ferocious fighting with Gaza, further polarizing the nation.
Prospects Remain Bleak as Civilian Toll Mounts
As the death tolls and displacement figures rise with each passing day, desperate civilians on both sides can only cower in fear and plead for respite from the deafening thunder of rockets and airstrikes. Humanitarian conditions in Gaza in particular are deteriorating rapidly amid diminishing supplies of food, water and medical care.
The grim prospect of a protracted war looms ever larger as both sides remain entrenched in their hardline positions. With Egyptian, Qatari and UN mediators seemingly unable so far to find common ground between Israel and Hamas, the prospects of a diplomatic breakthrough grow dimmer by the hour.
Yet negotiators remain undaunted in their efforts, understanding the catastrophic consequences of outright failure. Their unenviable task is to wrangle two bitter enemies consumed by decades of grievance and bloodshed into reaching an accommodation before the horrific civilian toll becomes even more unthinkable.
For the weary populaces of Gaza and Israel alike, all they can do is steel themselves against the terrifying onslaught, clinging to threadbare hopes that the mediators’ tireless diplomacy will ultimately prevail – if not for a lasting peace, then at least a temporary cessation of the death and destruction raining down from the skies above.
